The biggest night in European club football takes place this Saturday, as UEFA Champions League holders Real Madrid face Liverpool in the final in Kiev.
Both teams have saved their best performances this season for the European stage, having defeated the likes of PSG, Juventus, Manchester City, Roma and Bayern Munich en route to the final.
In this blog, we use Opta data to highlight areas which may influence each team’s tactical approach to the game.
Potential match winners: Salah vs Ronaldo
Salah and Ronaldo are evenly matched in terms of goals scored in all competitions (44 to 43), however the Egyptian has the edge in terms of chances created: 95 to 52.
Analysing Champions League matches in isolation, from the group stage onwards Salah has scored 10 goals, which is higher than his xG, which stands at 6.88. Ronaldo had more than double the attempts (67 to 31) and has scored 15, which is slightly higher than his xG (14.29). His goal tally is exactly half of Real’s total.
From reviewing each player’s shot map from Champions League games and matches against top-six league opposition, we can see that Ronaldo, displayed on the left, is a high volume shooter, from both inside and outside the box, with a large proportion of these attempts having a low xG probability. This is indicated by the small circles.
Most of his goals occur from open play in central areas inside the box – and 15% of his goal attempts were headers, which suggests that Real target him from wide areas.
Salah has scored a high proportion of his goals from various areas within the 18 yard box, plus a few from distance. He has also scored two goals on the counter attack in the Champions League knock-out stages.
Nearly 90% of Salah’s goal attempts were with his left foot, which means that the Real back four should be looking to stop him cutting in onto his preferred foot from the right hand side.
On the flanks: Alexander-Arnold versus Marcelo
One defensive weakness of Real appears to be at left-back. Over half the goals they have conceded in Europe have come as a result of crosses from the attacking right, with their opponents having collectively averaged over 17 crosses per game.
This will suit Liverpool right back Trent Alexander-Arnold, who in nine competition matches has delivered 35 crosses, the highest of any Liverpool player.
In the first leg of their semi-final against Roma, Alexander-Arnold had the most final third and penalty area entries for Liverpool. Here is his pass map from the game:
Despite a potential weakness defensively, left-back Marcelo is a crucial player in Real’s attacking play.
In the second leg of their semi-final, he had the most key passes and final third entries. As we can see from his touch map, he was involved frequently in moves in the opposition half.
Marcelo has created 17 chances in the Champions League this season and is the joint highest creator of chances for Ronaldo, with seven.
The full-back has also scored three goals in the competition – two of which came from one-twos played on the edge of the opposition box, with the Brazilian cutting inside between the right back and central defender to get onto the return ball.
Given the influence of both Alexander-Arnold and Marcelo, whoever comes out on top here could be crucial to the outcome.
The influence of Toni Kroos
One challenge Liverpool will have is limiting the influence of Toni Kroos – and again the involvement of Marcelo is crucial in making this happen.
Kroos is Real’s outlet for the vast majority of passes played into midfield, as illustrated by this table.
| Player | Total Passes received* |
| Toni Kroos | 542 |
| Luka Modric | 339 |
| Casemiro | 285 |
*=collective passes played by Daniel Carvajal, Marcelo, Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varane. Champions League and top six league matches only.
From the same sample, the passing line between Kroos and Marcelo significantly outnumbers any other. In the 20 matches they have played together, they have passed to each other 510 times.
Disrupting this combination could be key in stifling Real’s attack and the man at the heart of this may be Roberto Firmino. As well as being a key attacking player, Firmino has shown strong defensive attributes, leading his team in tackles won during European games. In the final he could be a key figure in disrupting Kroos’s rhythm.
Will Real look to hurt Liverpool from wide positions?
In La Liga, Real sit second in terms of crosses played into the box (23.7 per 90). They have continued this approach in the Champions League, averaging 22.5.
Liverpool’s supposed vulnerability from crosses and set pieces earlier this season was often highlighted, however since the knockout stages Liverpool have had to defend 17.83 crosses a game and have not conceded a single big chance from a cross.
As shown in the table below, mid-season signing Virgil van Dijk has had a big impact in European games. From looking at aerial duels in the defensive third, we can see that van Dijk has been involved in more duels compared to his regular partner, Dejan Lovren, with a higher success rate.
Aerial Duels in the defensive third: Champions League knockout stages
| Name | Mins Played | Aerials per 90 | Aerial % Success |
| V. van Dijk | 450 | 3.2 | 87.5% |
| D. Lovren | 540 | 2.5 | 60% |
An attacking final in store?
Real Madrid and Liverpool rank first and second in terms of xG for the Champions League this season, so we could be in for one of the most entertaining finals in recent times.
From Liverpool’s side, nearly 75% of all their goals from the group stage onwards have been scored by three players: Firmino, Salah and Mane, whilst Salah, Firmino and Milner have on average created over two chances each per game.
For Real, Ronaldo has scored 15 of their 30 goals, with Benzema and Marcelo contributing four and three respectively.
It is also worth noting that despite only featuring in six games (three as a sub), Gareth Bale has an intentional assist ratio of 0.68 per 90. He didn’t start either of the semi-final legs, but he could have a key role in the final.
With so much attacking talent on display and many key duels in crucial areas of the pitch, it certainly promises to be an intriguing match and a fitting end to the tournament.